FUTURE EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY, HAZARD EXTENT, AND RISK ASSESMENT OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION OF CALIFORNIA

Based on past earthquakes such as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, as well as paleoseismological data and GPS detected relative plate movements (Figure 5), it has been determined that there is a 62% chance that a major earthquake of moment magnitude Mo6.7 or greater is likely to strike the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) within the next 30 years. In light of these facts, it is imperative that a standard be set for buildings to withstand high magnitude earthquake events in order to minimize risk from seismic hazards. These measures, coupled with the continuation of scientific research, will minimize loss of life and property damage.