DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING PREDICTIVE SKILLS IN EARTH SCIENCE COURSES

Scientists utilize the scientific method to understand nature. Once nature is understood, prediction is possible. Prediction is claimed to be the ultimate purpose of science. Furthermore, prediction plays a major role in validating scientific hypotheses during experimentation.

Although the ability to predict is paramount in science, educators rarely attempt to develop predictive skills in their students nor do they usually test for such skills. A survey of a wide variety of earth science curricula found that objectives rarely state the need to develop predictive skills, although they may imply such. Similarly, an examination of numerous instructor-authored exams at various levels of earth science as well as various exams available from commercial publishers revealed that most test questions provoke the lower levels of cognitive learning but very few questions test higher-order predictive abilities.

The earth sciences provide ample opportunity for constructing exam items that evoke predictive skills. The author developed “predictive exams” for several college courses. Developing the questions required an entirely different approach to test construction. When administered, a severe deficiency in science students was discovered——they did not understand the material at a sufficient level to be able to synthesize and predict. The author was forced to revamp his curricula so that these students knew what was expected in order to respond to such questions. More importantly, lectures on nearly every topic were changed to better demonstrate how understanding leads to prediction. Students now remark that they better appreciate the purpose of science in their lives.

Samples of our prediction-enriched offerings will be demonstrated at the presentation. Copies may be obtained.