VULNERABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: THE ADDED STRESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is one of the biggest issues facing humanity in the 21st Century. Increases in globally averaged temperatures over the last few decades are outside the normal variability for at least the last thousand years and perhaps much longer. A variety of datasets suggest that this temperature increase is primarily due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of radiatively important gases and particles. Human activities are mainly responsible for emissions of these gases. In the absence of major emission control policies, economic and technological projections suggest that these concentrations will continue to increase well into the future, implying much larger changes in climate over the coming decades than what has already been seen.

Climate change is a global issue, but its impacts will be seen and felt most strongly at the regional and local level. The U.S. and much of our planet already face concerns over a variety of issues, including water quality and availability, pollution, ecosystem health, and expanding urbanization. Exacerbating these concerns is the possibility of long-term changes in climate, including rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, increasing sea levels and greater frequency of extreme events such as droughts or floods. These carry the potential for widespread impacts on natural resources, ecological systems, human health, infrastructure and economic systems. To successfully address these concerns and impacts, regional and national policy development and planning focused on mitigation and adaptation to existing stresses must include the uncertainties introduced by future climate change. The objective of this presentation is to discuss the vulnerability and risks to humanity and ecosystems associated with climate change within the context of current understanding of the science of climate change and possible impacts over this century.