PRE-HISTORIC SOCIOPOLITICAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE CANYON OF THE ANCIENTS REGION, SOUTHWEST COLORADO: MULTIPLE-SCALE AND MULTI-TEMPORAL HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM MODELING TO PREDICT THE RELATIONSHIP OF DRINKING WATER SUPPLIES AND SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

Multiple-scale, multi-temporal mathematical models simulating the relationships between environmental variables, such as frequencies of climatic variations, hydrogeology, and ground-water systems, are necessary to predict the paleohydrologic complex in the Canyon of the Ancients region, Southwest Colorado. Prediction of the paleohydrologic complex can subsequently be related to a direct response by sociopolitical human systems from A.D. 600 through 1300. Both regional- and village- scale hydrological models may predict the settlement patterns and land-use practices influenced by the availability and quantity of drinking water supplies over long periods of time.

New conceptual and mathematical modeling results for regional and local village systems in the Canyon of the Ancients Region, analyzed from the perspective of saturated zone ground-water flow, indicate that Village site selection and the aggregation of clans into Villages may be based on the quantity and location of drinking water supplies. Although climate driven, the amount of drinking water available at any given time period corresponds proportionately to the effective extent of the aquifer recharge area, and resulting delayed ground-water flow response as a function of the hydrogeologic characteristics of the aquifer being used by the Villages.