THE USE AND ABUSE OF GROUNDWATER RESOURCES IN THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN: HISTORY, HYDROLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT

In this talk, we provide a brief overview on the historical development of groundwater utilization and the recent rapid depletion of groundwater resources in the North China Plain (NCP). We review the hydrogeological conditions and the major dynamics of the groundwater systems in the NCP. Through exploring the deficiencies in the existing theory of safe yield and the related groundwater management practices, we advocate the use of groundwater modeling as a tool for guiding future groundwater management and achieving sustainability. Using the shallow groundwater system in the Shijiazhuang area as an example, we demonstrate the use of a groundwater model to track the past changing system dynamics and forecast the future evolution under various management and climate scenarios. In addition, we recommend the approach of an adaptive management practice in response to the uncertainties inherent in the modeling of a complex regional system.