RECORDS OF HUMAN LAND USE ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA

The overarching objective of this study is to characterize, quantify, and model the spectrum of coupled natural-human dynamics on the Eastern Shore of Virginia over the past 200 years. Historical, ecological, and geochemical data are being used to produce a multiple commodity model for advancing technology regimes (i.e., in 1840, 1880, 1920, 1960, 2000). Sediment cores have been collected from four bayside tidal creeks on the Eastern Shore of Virginia (Nandua Creek, Nassawadox Creek, King's Creek, and Old Plantation Creek). Carbon and nitrogen isotope values have been established at 1 cm intervals for the ~ 100 cm cores. Preliminary analysis suggests a shift in land use patterns (e.g., large scale agriculture shifting from C3 (tobacco) to C4 (corn) crops) that corroborate historical records available from throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. Other significant developments like the construction of the railroad and the incorporation of Haber process fertilizers appear to have influenced the isotope signals as well. Upon completion of the model, principal component analysis and other quantitative procedures are also being employed to assess system stability, resiliency, and resistance to change during and between time periods.