DECADE-SCALE DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE U.S.: ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL OR READY FOR THE BIG ONE?

Drought affects some part of the United States virtually every year. Since 1998 large portions of the western and central United States have experienced severe sustained drought, with major impacts to water supply, rangeland agriculture, and wild land fire. Major western rivers like the Colorado and Rio Grande experienced their lowest flows in the instrumental record, and managers were challenged to respond to a variety of challenges, such as ESA issues, irrigation allocation cutbacks, and dwindling municipal water supplies. Because the United States does not have a national drought plan, many states developed drought plans during this period, and thus were in a reactive management mode. Even states like Colorado, with the oldest state drought plan, were caught off guard by the severity of the drought and its impact on water supplies. The realities of these severe conditions prompted Colorado and New Mexico, among other states, to rewrite drought plans. Some of the difficulty in planning for drought comes from the long onset, differential impacts, and difficulty determining when it's over. Exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts varies across sectors and social strata, and drought exacerbates preexisting social, economic, and environmental conditions. Thus unresolved water rights issues, land management practices emphasizing short time-scales, and short-sighted economic policies, left many states particularly vulnerable to drought and ill-prepared to respond in a timely fashion. Perception also plays a part in drought preparedness, as was evidenced during the wet 2004-05 winter in the Southwest, when some decision makers put drought on the policy back burner, ignoring the historical tendency for multi-decade drought. To the degree that such issues remain unresolved, states will remain vulnerable, especially to multiyear and multi-decade drought. However, the severe impacts of drought provide fertile ground for change. This presentation assesses the policy implications of decade-length drought in the U.S., and examines changes in the drought vulnerability and preparedness.