EARLY PREDICTORS OF STUDENT PERFORMANCE IN AN INTRODUCTORY GEOSCIENCE COURSE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERVENTION STRATEGIES

Most students can not readily predict their performance in introductory science courses. Consequently, many students will not recognize that their study techniques may result in poor class performance. Courses that introduce effective intervention strategies have the potential to improve performance and reduce student attrition. But what are the signals of the potential for a poor performance? What predictors can we identify relatively early in a semester that will provide time to turn around a student heading for a future F? Preliminary analysis of data from an earth science course for non-majors suggests that there are at least two predictors of student performance: a) Student exam preparation methods; b) Early semester scores on daily, weekly, and/or early evaluations.

Interviews with students revealed that pre-exam study methods typically fall into one of two categories. Students who do poorly on early exams often report study methods that rely on repeated readings, memorization of facts, or studying for a fixed amount of time. Few of these students employ any methods to assess their own learning. In contrast, students who earn scores of 80% or higher on exams often describe a process of self-reflection that involves explaining what they have learned to others or using various methods to link together key concepts.

Analysis of final grades reveals that students who earn D or F, or who withdraw (W) from the class, typically begin the semester with poor performances on daily questions, weekly homework, and/or monthly exams. For example, approximately three-quarters of students scoring less than 60% on the first exam earn a D, F, or W for the course. Conversely, almost all those students earning a final grade of A scored 80% or higher on the first exam and/or had a similar score after two weeks of daily conceptests monitored using an interactive response system. It should come as no surprise that students who do poorly on early exams often earn low grades, but it is significant that student performance patterns can be set within the first few weeks of a class. This suggests that effective intervention strategies must be introduced from the beginning of the semester. Students who were guided to incorporate these techniques showed greater improvement on subsequent exam scores than the rest of the class.