PEAK OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION: ALL GEOLOGY IS LOCAL

Global oil production is projected by various parties to peak between late 2005 and 2040. These projections entail estimates of both long-term rates of global oil consumption and ultimate global oil recovery, and thus require economic market forecasts as well as geologic resource assessment. Long-term consumption is best forecast as a range of scenarios, and ultimate oil recovery is best estimated as a probability distribution.

Forecasts of peak oil production for individual nations are less problematic, often falling within a narrow time period. Only a few oil-producing basins underlie most nations, and typically one or two fields account for most of a basin's production. Peak oil production in most nations coincides with peak production from their largest fields. Most producing nations thus have well-defined time frame in which to address their energy policy issues.

The Groenigen field became the main source of gas for the Western European market in 1961, and was later supplemented by North Sea gas discoveries. These fields are now declining, and new gas sources are being sought from diverse sources outside the EU, including the Atlantic LNG market.

Indonesia possesses 14 oil-producing basins. Production began in 1883 and peaked in 1996. Indonesia, a nominal member of OPEC, began importing oil in 2005 while selling fuel at subsidized prices. Attempts to increase fuel prices in line with crude prices have been poorly received.

Cantarelle field dominates Mexican production, and it contributes almost 25 percent of the federal government's revenue. The field began to decline in 2005 at an estimated rate of 14 percent per year for. The expected loss of revenue to the national government will create strains for Mexico and its neighbors.

California oil production peaked in 1985 and Alaskan oil production peaked in1988. Today Californian refinery capacity far exceeds Californian oil production, and in a few years Washington refining capacity will likewise exceed Alaskan oil production. Refining-marketing companies face a choice: import crude oil to freed their refineries or import refined-products to feed their market outlets. In the latter scenario, some refining by-products will no longer be inexpensive or readily available on the West Coast.