ASSESSMENT OF LAND-USE TRENDS FROM 1992 TO 2006 AND ADVERSE EFFECTS TO WATER QUALITY IN THE BUFFALO NATIONAL RIVER WATERSHED, NORTHERN ARKANSAS

To help better understand the environmental impacts on the Buffalo National River watershed, surveys and subsequent calculations of land-use trends were made for the years 1965 to 1992 by Scott and Udouj (1999).  Since that period, no similar calculations have been made to further quantify these trends.  Measurements from various private and government agencies throughout the watershed have shown a decrease in water-quality conditions in the form of increased nutrient concentrations and sediment loads.  These results are attributed to changes in the land-use within the watershed.  This project set out to analyze both water-quality conditions and land-use changes in the watershed and to correlate these findings spatially using GIS software.  Land-use data for Arkansas from the years 1992, 1999, 2004, to 2006 were analyzed and used to calculate new values and trends in land-use for the Buffalo National River watershed comparable to a previous methodology done by Scott and Udouj (1999). These calculations are for subsequent land-use changes in the entire watershed, proximally to the Buffalo National River and its tributaries, and isolated regions in the watershed. Expected results are predicted to reflect trends seen by Scott and Udouj (1999). These results include increased loss in forest land to pasture, progression of forest land to pasture at higher slopes, and a higher percentage of conversion of forest land to pasture proximal to the Buffalo National River and its tributaries. It is these changes that primarily contribute continual declines in water-quality conditions seen in the Buffalo National River watershed.