GSA Annual Meeting, November 5-8, 2001

Paper No. 0
Presentation Time: 11:15 AM

LONG-RANGE POWER-LAW CORRELATIONS IN CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 100000 YEARS


ASHKENAZY, Yosef1, BAKER, Don1, HAVLIN, Shlomo2 and STANLEY, H. Eugene1, (1)Center for Polymer Studies and Dep. of Physics, Boston Univ, 590 Comm. Ave, Boaton, MA 02215, (2)Dep. of Phsyics, Bar-Ilan Univ, Rama-Gan, 52900, Israel, ashkenaz@argento.bu.edu

Previous studies indicated weak long-range correlated behavior in daily temperature variations from their annual average. These temperature variations are found to be correlated over a decade. Here we study long-term (more than 100000 years) annual temperature changes reflected by data obtained from four ice-cores (two from the south-pole and two from the north-pole). We perform correlation analysis using the following techniques: (i) uneven sampled Fourier transform technique and (ii) the detrended fluctuation analysis which can eliminate higher order trends from the data. We show that changes in the delta-18O and delta-D (temperature proxies) are strongly long-range correlated over tens of thousands of years. Moreover, we also study the correlation properties of the magnitudes of the increments of climate changes (volatility) and find highly correlated behavior; these volatility correlations indicate strong nonlinearity of the underlying processes of climate changes. Our results suggest a wide multifractal spectrum for climate change.