FORECASTING MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS GENERATED BY HURRICANES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS

More than 45 million permanent residents inhabit the hurricane-prone coastline, extending from Texas through Maine. Despite increasing risk of coastal change and related hazards, population and development within this coastal zone have more than doubled since the 1960's. On average, ten tropical storms will develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico per year, of which six will intensify into major hurricanes. In a three-year period, five of these hurricanes will strike the US coastline anywhere from Texas through Maine, killing between 50-100 people. Hurricane predictive capabilities need to be rapid and accurate in order to protect coastal areas from potential devastation.

The goal of this project is to develop an efficient method to predict wave energy affected by hurricane forcing. Historical wave data were gathered from NOAA wave rider buoys, during three 1999 hurricanes. Using this data, we found that deep-water wave characteristics can be predicted using a relatively simple relationship. We also found that deep-water wave height can be, roughly, scaled in terms of categories of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) modeling aided the ability to forecast the interactions of deep-water waves with the seafloor progressing from the shelf to the innershore. These calculations of hurricane wave height are being used to assess the vulnerability of coasts to wave run-up erosion and/or overtopping foredune ridges during severe storms following a recently proposed Storm Impact Scale (Sallenger, 2000).