THE EQUATION OF SELF-DEVELOPING NATURAL PROCESSES

Study of patterns of fore-culmination activizations present a great interest for the forecast of geophysical catastrophes, such as disastrous earthquakes, strong volcanic eruptions, rock bumps, landslides etc. During the study of Bezymyannyi volcano eruptions in 1980-1987 the fact of hyperbolic activization before explosive-effusive eruptions was established. Further studying of the revealed regularities and their comparison with empirical dependencies of the development of various natural processes allowed to conclude that there is a wide class of self-developing natural processes, the dynamics of which is described by non-linear differential equation of the second order. The attempts of using these regularities for the forecast of eruptions were quite successful, however the accuracy of the forecast for the time of eruption did not exceed a semiquantitative level. At present the methods, allowing confidently to reveal the laws of the development of natural processes, have been developed. As it is shown on the example of a number of Bezymyannyi and Shivelutch volcanic eruptions, for the class of eruptions, having stable fore-culmination preparation, this technique allows increasing accuracy of paroxysm time forecast up to a quantitative level. The forecast of destructive earthquakes is more complicated. The foreshock-aftershock sequences of destructive earthquakes in southern Kuril arc area have analyzed by Ivan Tikhonov and me. It was established that the development of both of foreshock, and aftershock sequences corresponds to the equation of the dynamics of self-developing natural processes. However the foreshock sequences are more poorly expressed. Probably, some updating of seismic observations is required for getting more stable results. The obtained results make it possible to assume, that the methods are perspective for the forecast of these geophysical catastrophes. Now this methods is using for monitoring of seismic activity in Kuril arc area and Japan.