Paper No. 203-10
Presentation Time: 10:30 AM-10:45 AM
SUDDEN, GRADUAL, OR STEPWISE? EXPANDING THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IN STATISTICAL TESTS OF MASS EXTINCTION
WANG, Steve C., Department of Statistics, Harvard Univ, 1 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138, scwang@stat.harvard.edu.

Due to the Signor-Lipps effect, a simultaneous extinction of a collection of taxa may appear gradual in the fossil record. Several methods have been proposed that account for the incompleteness of the fossil record when testing whether a collection of taxa went extinct simultaneously. However, we may be interested in testing other patterns of extinction in addition to a simultaneous extinction of all taxa. For instance, we may hypothesize that an extinction occurred gradually, or in several pulses. Here we introduce a statistical method for testing whether any arbitrary extinction scenario is consistent with observed last occurrences in the fossil record. Using this method, we can determine a confidence region for the “shape” of a hypothesized extinction event.

2002 Denver Annual Meeting (October 27-30, 2002)
Session No. 203
Seafood Through Time—The Ecologic Context of the History of Life I: In Honor of Richard K. Bambach
Colorado Convention Center: A102/104/106
8:00 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, October 30, 2002
 

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