DECISION ANALYSIS: A SYSTEMATIC PROCESS AND ANALYTICAL TOOLS TO SUPPORT GEOSCIENCE KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION

A goal of geoscience-knowledge integration is making faster, more confident, and more reliable decisions. Many before us in other industries have had a similar goal. For example, a branch of management science developed “decision analysis” in the 1960s to specifically address this goal; the resulting decision analysis techniques developed are universal and can be applied within any professional discipline, including geosciences. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the benefits of decision analysis in support of geoscience-knowledge integration.

Decision analysis is a systematic method (known as the “decision analysis process”) and analytical tools (software) that help decision makers solve complex decision problems. Decision analysis includes methods for analyzing uncertainty as well as methods for making tradeoffs between multiple, and often competing objectives. Proper application of the decision analysis process results in the following: information gaps are uncovered and filled; a “value” is placed on uncertainty (the value of risk reduction is quantified); logical, organized, and rigorous decisions are made; a formal language for communicating among decision makers and stakeholders is provided. The paper includes discussions on the use of decision trees, influence diagrams, Monte Carlo simulation, and multi-attribute utility.