COMMUNICATING SCIENCE WITH INCOMPLETE KNOWLEDGE OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM

Endangered species management for two suckers in the Klamath Basin illustrates a common problem of making environmental decisions when scientific understanding of a system is in an early stage. Management of Lost River and shortnose suckers began with fisheries data and a federal listing in 1988. The fishery was closed in 1987 and non-fisheries data were non-existent. In 2001, with about 10 years of non-fisheries data, US Fish & Wildlife Service constructed verbal probability models of relationships between suckers and the lake. They acknowledged that lake elevation was only one of many important variables, but the only one they could manipulate. Higher lake elevations were argued to provide insurance against lethal water conditions created by other factors. Opponents of the decision pointed out that a low water year, 1991, had no demonstrable negative effects on suckers. The lessons, often misunderstood by the public and forgotten by scientists embroiled in controversy are: 1) Science cannot make statements which are certain or which prove anything. 2) Theory, as used in science, is not the speculative, un-tested idea that is evoked in the public's mind. 3) Our knowledge of natural systems is very incomplete leading to our use of estimates - numbers the public equates with guesses. 4) The complexity of what we do know about natural systems means it is always possible for a proponent or opponent of a particular course of action to point to alternative data/interpretations leading to public confusion and insistence that we fully understand a system before we act - an impossible dream given the inherent limitations of science and the complexity of most environmental issues. 5) The profound relevance of these issues to humans and other species makes these issues controversial, such that debate tends to degenerate into discourse that is counter-productive. 6) Knee-jerk reactions and sloppy thinking that exacerbate problems can only be countered by critical thinking, a skill often in short supply.