NATURAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS: EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING METHODS AND COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT; UNITING SCIENTISTS, ADMINISTRATORS AND THE PUBLIC

Natural Disasters are an omnipresent threat to the global population. Many techniques have been developed in the field of disaster forecasting, yet none of these can be claimed as truly successful unless disaster and loss are reduced. Disaster mitigation is most successful in the presence of constant and comprehensible communication between several sectors of society. Scientists can see ahead, but their results are of little use unless they are understood and acted upon by public administrators. It is the linking up of these two professional communities that makes the greatest difference in disaster mitigation (Leitner, 1999). A good case study for this is the Luzon Crustal Stress Community Awareness Network (CSCAN). Luzon is the largest island of the northern Philippine archipelago. There, scientific, administrative and public realms combine efforts and share information through CSCAN. The belief is that the integration of disaster anticipation and management is essential in maximizing the profitability of scientific information (Col, 2000). Local citizens run ten crustal stress monitoring sites, recording data and reporting it to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

Communication with PHIVOLCS and the United Nations Global Programme for the Integration of Public Administration and the Science of Disasters (UNGP-IPASD) resulted in visits to each of the ten communities in the Luzon CSCAN in order to work with the scientists and involved members at each station. Meetings in Beijing with those who developed and tested these technologies in China followed these visits. It was observed that by sharing information between scientists and the community in China and the Philippines and by utilizing citizen resources, the public is more informed and self-empowered and will thus be able to react in a more organized manner in times of disaster. These same geophysical and social technologies can be implemented in other disaster prone regions of the world to heighten awareness, increase preparedness, and reduce loss associated with earthquakes and other disasters.