PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH FORECASTING THE NOR'EASTER OF MARCH 4-6, 2001

Meteorologists forecast weather systems by using different computer models such as the AVN (Aviation Model), NGM (Nested Grid Model), and ETA (named after the Greek letter, "Eta"). Differences between these three atmospheric models, variations in their interpretation, and insufficient communication among the National Weather Service forecast meteorologists in the offices of Albany, Binghamton, and Buffalo, New York and Burlington, Vermont, led to discrepancies in the warnings that were issued for the Nor'easter of March 4-6, 2001. Broadcast meteorologists then delivered these different warnings to the public creating even more confusion of the pending severe winter snowstorm. Research undertaken at WKTV News Channel 2 in Utica, New York, showed that better agreement between the atmospheric models and more consistency between the statements issued by the regional offices would yield improved storm forecasts to the public.