PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC HAZARD TO FLAGSTAFF, ARIZONA, FROM THE LAKE MARY FAULT SYSTEM

Flagstaff, Arizona is the largest urban center in northern Arizona with a population in excess of 50,000. Flagstaff was affected by ground shaking from three M>6.0 earthquakes in the early 1900's that caused minor damage. None of these tremors resulted in surface scarps. The Lake Mary fault system is the largest in the Flagstaff region with a total length of 40 kilometers and total normal offset of 122 meters. The magnitude of the Maximum Credible Earthquake(MCE)from total surface rupture is Mw6.9. Input of this event into HAZUS indicates potential for 11 fatalities, 530injuries and a total damage estimate of about 930 million dollars.