PROJECTING GROWTH IN SUMMIT COUNTY, COLORADO

Summit County lies between Denver and Vail, Colorado, and is home to the Arapaho, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, and Keystone ski areas. About 80% of the 620 sq mi (1600 sq km) area of the county is administered by the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management, and there are significant tracks of privately owned land along major drainages, and around the Dillon Reservoir. Patented mining claims in the Argentine, Breckenridge, and Montezuma districts also provide space for gracious mountain living.

The gross county product of Summit County was $421 million in 2001, led by hotels and other accommodations ($102 million) and construction ($67 million). The ski resorts and the reservoir are lightning rods for growth in the county, which was ranked among the fastest growing regions in the U.S. during the 1990's – there were 23,500 permanent residents in 2000, an 80% in the 1990's, and the population can balloon to 100,000 during peak seasons. In the period from 1960 to 2000 the permanent population increased more than 30% per decade, and an increase of only 25% from the 2000 number would put the population of the county at 30,000 by 2010. This is more than 30 times the number of people living there in 1950 – where will these people live?

Geo-spatial data and topographic slope and aspect information were examined to determine possible locations for population growth in Summit County. Thousands of acres face south (SW, S, SE), and are in less than 20 degree slopes, but most of this land lies within the White River National Forest. Significant planning, and probably negotiation with the Forest Service will be needed to accommodate the expected growth in Summit County during the 21st Century.