SUCCESSES AND LESSONS LEARNED IN PROVIDING GEOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR SOCIETAL USE: EXAMPLES FROM THE NATURAL GAS RESOURCE ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY

The Potential Gas Committee (PGC), a volunteer organization of 145 geologists and engineers, is the only regularly updated source of information on the United States' potential supply of natural gas. For over forty years, the PGC has successfully provided information to policy makers, the commercial sector, and the public?information that is routinely incorporated in developing the nation's energy and land-use policies, as the basis for investment decisions, and to track exploration efficiencies. Nevertheless, the PGC has been surprised on some occasions when its scientifically uncontroversial data have evoked unexpected social reactions. For example, a Federal agency disallowed the requested depreciation plan of an interstate pipeline because the agency incorrectly aggregated PGC estimates of various classes of remaining gas resources and assumed that all of the technically recoverable quantities were also economically recoverable during the lifetime of the new pipeline.

Estimates of the nation's remaining gas resources are based in the scientific realm but they are used in a social context. To be successful, the estimates must meet the criteria for scientific rigor, but they must also fulfill the social purposes that they are created to serve. The PGC's experiences suggest that it is vitally important to understand those social purposes and the expectations of each probable end-user. Examples of incorrect usage of PGC and U.S. Geological Survey resource assessment results illustrate that the weak link at the policy-science interface is (not unexpectedly) communications. This disconnect between provided information and user expectations is complicated by the difficulty in conveying the concept and implications of scientific uncertainty to the non-scientist. Geologists must consciously learn the ability to see ideas, data, and concepts from different perspectives if geology is to better serve societal needs.