INCREASING RATES OF SEA-LEVEL RISE AND HURRICANE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: A RECIPE FOR DISASTER

Reconstructions of both hurricane landfalls and sea level indicate that hurricane activity and increased rates of sea-level rise have occurred over the last few centuries. Several sea level records from Connecticut and Massachusetts all reveal similar trends over the last 1500 years. The rate of sea-level rise slowed at approximately 1000 years ago concomitant with climate cooling at the end of the medieval warm period. These reconstructions also point to a dramatic increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the second half of the 19th century from 1mm/year or less to close to 3 mm/yr. As the timing of the increase in the rate of sea-level rise is roughly coincident with the onset of modern climate warming it may indicate a potential link with recent temperature increases.

Analysis of washover events preserved in sites throughout the western North Atlantic indicate an increase in the occurrence of intense hurricane landfalls in the last few hundred years following a several hundred year lull. The combination of more rapidly increasing sea level and more frequent hurricanes poses a significant threat to the heavily developed coastal communities of the region. For example if a storm like the 1821 hurricane, which tracked over the entire eastern seaboard from North Carolina to Connecticut, were to strike today the impacts would be devastating. This coastline has experienced significant development over the last century. Coastal populations in these states total over 45 million and insured coastal property exceeds 1.4 trillion dollars. This coastline is more vulnerable at present as sea level has increased over 40 cm since 1821. The financial loss associated a storm like the 1821 hurricane today would likely far exceed that of the nation's most costly natural disaster, Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Many lives may also be lost due to future hurricane strikes because of difficulties evacuating this densely populated region in advance of a fast-moving intense hurricane.