STATISTICAL AND ANALYTICAL COMPARISONS BETWEEN DRINKING WATER SUPPLY AND PREHISTORIC POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, CANYON OF THE ANCIENTS NATIONAL MONUMENT, SOUTHWEST COLORADO

As part of an NSF biocomplexity study of prehistoric settlement populations in the Canyon of the Ancients National Monument, Colorado, spring discharge and drinking water supplies were mathematically simulated. This was accomplished by using ground-water flow models for both the modern hydrologic and paleohydrologic systems of the coupled human/natural landscape from A.D. 600 through 1300. The purpose this paper is to directly compare the prehistoric Puebloan population distribution of selected villages to modeled drinking water supplies. . Model sensitivity analysis was used to constrain the range of paleohydrologic parameters. Statistical correlations were then used of developed spring discharge rate curves in comparison to the human population spatially and temporally on the landscape. Methodology used included statistical graphical analysis, Fourier transformation, and multivariate statistics.

Results for each of the statistical methods relating drinking water supplies to prehistoric Puebloan population distribution are compared for three archeological sites including Sand Canyon Ruin, Yellow Jacket Pueblo, and Lowry Ruin. Constraining paleohydrologic model parameters through sensitivity analysis is statistically significant in relationship to the prehistoric Puebloan population distribution.