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Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments: Creating a Roadmap for Change in the United States (18–20 September 2006)

Paper No. 26
Presentation Time: 6:00 PM-8:00 PM

MONITORING, FORECASTING, AND MANAGING DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN USA


JONES, J.W., Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 10570, Gainesville, FL 32611, INGRAM, K.T., Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611, O'BRIEN, J.J., Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, CHRISTY, J., Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 and STOOKSBURY, D.E., Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, jimj@ufl.edu

Although annual precipitation in the Southeastern USA is generally greater that annual potential evapotranspiration, great spatial and temporal variability of rainfall often results in drought that adversely impact agriculture and forests. In addition, La Niña conditions increase the probability of a prolonged drought with adverse effects on municipal water stakeholders and various water-dependent industries. Droughts can have both positive and negative effects on natural ecosystems. Offices of the State Climatologists in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia have developed drought monitoring indices, including the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which estimates wildfire threat, and the Lawn and Garden Moisture Index (LGMI), which estimates the severity of water deficit for shallow rooted perennial grasses. Based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, scientists of the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) have developed seasonal forecasts for both KBDI and LGMI. The KBDI forecasts are presented as monthly, county-level maps of the probability of KBDI being greater than or equal to 450 (abnormally dry), 500 (moderately dry), 550 (severely dry), or 650 (extremely dry) for at least seven days during the month. These forecasts are updated monthly during the wildfire season of the Southeast US, that is, January through June. The LGMI indices are presented as county-level maps of the probability that LGMI will be less than -1.5 (severely dry) for during 10-day periods from 10 to 50 days in the future. Both KBDI and LGMI maps are accompanied with text that helps users interpret and apply these indices to the management of drought risk. These and other climate information products developed by SECC are made available to decision makers through AgClimate.org, a web based decision support system that is designed to help decision makers to manage risks in arising from drought and other climate extremes.

Session No. 2--Booth# 26

Reception and Poster Session I
Monday, 18 September 2006: 6:00 PM-8:00 PM
Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Speciality Meeting No. 3, p.22
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