PANEL DISCUSSION: IMPROVING SCIENTIFIC DATA AND ANALYSES, PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENTS, AND IMPROVING COMMUNICATIONS OF FINDINGS AND UNCERTAINTIES

In legal settings and policy discussions, the “dueling scientist” phenomenon arises from the inherent uncertainty of all scientific findings. Several dimensions of the issue contribute to the frequent inability of scientists to provide their information in a way that is useful to policy makers and the public. Improving the analysis and assessment of risk is a technical aspect of the problem that is receiving increased attention. Policy and communication aspects are equally important. Transparency in communicating scientific results is essential and scientists increasingly are called upon to acknowledge uncertainties and cast scientific conclusions in terms of probability of outcomes. The social science perspective is key because a person's perception of risk and uncertainty often differs from the analytical assessment of these parameters. This is often accompanied by a “seeing is believing” point of view, which confounds communication efforts in slow onset phenomena such as drought. Scientists can improve communication of their findings by better understanding decision-making contexts and decision-maker risk tolerance. In many cases, drought is near the bottom of a list of concerns such as economics, crime, education, and access to technology. For scientific information to “stick” with decision-makers, there is also an aspect of developing trust, which takes time, face-to-face interactions, and iteration. Consequently, trusted information brokers, such as cooperative extensions, can often help enhance usability of information by bridging the worlds of research and decision-making and by translating key findings into the local vernacular.