POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE MID- AND UPPER-ATLANTIC COAST

Previous studies suggest that by the end of this century climate change could raise sea-level by 2 feet on average, ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 feet, for the Atlantic coastal region. In order to make these projections more useful for decision makers, they need to be translated into the area affected by sea-level rise. In this study, we use GIS models to combine sea level projections with topographic, land use, demographic and transportation data to show the potential impact of projected sea-level rise in each of the 85 coastal counties from Massachusetts to Virginia. For each county, a map shows different risk zones; and quantities of land area in these zones are calculated. In addition, the map of elevation zones is overlaid with land use, 2000 Census block data and road network to calculate the breakdown of different land use types, the length of roads, and the number of people living in these risk zones. Initial results show that over 1000 square miles of land and 388 thousand people are highly vulnerable to future sea-level rise. This study is conducted for the Consortium for the Atlantic Regional Assessment, a research and outreach effort funded by EPA to provide scientific information and tools through internet resources that government agencies, communities, citizens, businesses and other stakeholders can use for exploring and adapting to potential impacts from changes in land use and climate in the mid- and upper-Atlantic region.