Implications of Glacial Fluctuations, PDO, NAO, and Sun Spot Cycles for Global Climate In the Coming Decades
Comparisons of historic global climate warming and cooling over the past century with PDO and NAO oscillations, glacial fluctuations, and sun spot activity show strong correlations and provide a solid data base for future climate change projections. As shown by the historic pattern of PDOs over the past century and by corresponding global warming and cooling, the pattern is part of ongoing, 2530 yr, warm/cool cycles. The global cooling phase from 1880 to 1910, characterized by worldwide advance of glaciers, was followed by a shift to the warm-phase PDO and 30 years of global warming and rapid glacier recession. The cool-phase PDO returned in ~1945, accompanied by global cooling and glacial advance for 30 years. Shift to the warm-phase PDO in 1977 initiated global warming and recession of glaciers that persisted until 1998. Recent establishment of the PDO cool phase appeared right on target and global climates can be expected to cool over the next 25-30 years. The IPCC prediction of global temperatures 1° F warmer by 2011 and 2° F by 2038 stand little chance of being correctglobal warming' is over.