CLEAR MODEL FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE IMPACTS

One of the biggest challenges of the 21st century is to meet the global energy demand and at the same time to manage carbon emissions to avoid catastrophic socio-economic and environmental consequences. This challenge led to several proposals to stabilize CO2 atmospheric levels at specific targets both at regional and global scale. At regional scale for example California AB32 “California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006” requires greenhouse gases reduction by 2020. As a consequence the Sonoma County committed to reduce GHG emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2015.

CO2 emissions are the results of several coupled processes and the nonlinear outcome of interrelations and feedbacks among different systems such as energy, water, socio-economic system, policies and strategies implementation, agriculture, transportation, industry, and climate. A simple linear additive carbon inventory such as a carbon footprint calculator cannot provide useful and complete information. A different approach that can capture and investigate the interrelations among these systems is needed to study the complexity of energy-climate issues.

We developed a dynamical systems model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model, for studying interdependencies of energy development, resource requirements and impacts, and climate impacts. The CLEAR model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The CLEAR model is highly versatile, with potential application to many different energy development and utilization assessments. Here we present a specific application of the CLEAR model that focuses on CO2 emission assessments for alternative energy use and development policies, with a focus on Sonoma County, CA. This study evaluates environmental and economic ramifications associated with a shift toward renewable energy resource utilization as well as social changes.

We also developed an interface of the model, which helps analysts, stakeholders, and policymakers to understand options for implementation of technologies and to avoid unintended consequences.