GEOLOGIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA, CALIFORNIA, AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

California probably moves more water within its boundaries than any other political entity in the world. A key component of the state's water distribution system is the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The decrease in land-surface elevation of artificial islands and tracts within the Delta is generally attributed to the draining of peat-rich wetlands and the subsequent disappearance of organic material through oxidation, wind erosion and other processes. This anthropogenic subsidence is of great concern because it increases pore pressure on the levees that surround the islands and tracts. Failure of Delta levees will have serious economic and social consequences not only locally, but for the entire state of California. However, the anthropogenic subsidence is superimposed on natural geologic subsidence that, for the most part, has received little attention in risk assessments. Ages for basal peat deposits in cores at 18 sites within the Delta indicate that peat formation began about 6500 years BP. At most sites the basal peat is about 9 meters below current sea level. Global sea level curves suggest that about 6500 years ago, sea level was only 3 meters below current sea level. Because peat is generally assumed to form at or slightly below sea level, the most reasonable interpretation of the data from the basal peat deposits is that about 6 meters of natural geologic subsidence has occurred in the Delta over the past 6500 years. A subsidence rate of about 1 meter per 1000 years agrees well with estimates deduced by Shlemon and Begg (1971) from the present depth of tilted, older alluvial fans in the Sacramento Valley. These observations have profound implications for the assessment and mitigation of risk in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. First, the rate of geologic subsidence is comparable to the recent rate of sea level rise due to global climate change, and because these effects operate in concert, stress increase on Delta levees may well be twice as rapid as has been assumed. Second, on-going geologic subsidence coupled with relative tectonic stability to the west of the Delta suggests that an active north-south, fault trends through the region. And finally, glacial-interglacial cycles, imposed on the long-term geologic subsidence, likely led to the formation and burial of thick layers of older peat that could significantly affect the seismic response of the region.