WATER SCARCITY:CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL STABILITY IN THE NILE RIVER BASIN AND BEYOND

The environmental impact of climate change is nowhere more apparent than in the Nile River Basin. The Nile Basin countries are highly susceptible to climate change because of their underdevelopment, political instability, and rapid population growth that have led to accelerated deforestation, erosion, and desertification. These in turn have greatly impacted food security and surface and groundwater resources at the local and regional levels. In spite of the complex problems in the basin, future prospects for the region are even more pessimistic. It is reported that, “In 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the most vulnerable region on Earth in terms of economic challenges, population stresses, civil conflict, and political instability” (Global Trends 2025). Current global assessment is that “food and water also are intertwined with climate change, energy, and demography” (Global Trends 2025). Water is a key element to creating regional stability in eastern Africa and elsewhere. Creating a basin-wide agreement for sustainable and equitable utilization of Nile waters and advancing scientific and technological capacities and understanding the interdependence of energy, water, climate, environment, land use dynamics, and agriculture would have the greatest returns on national and regional investment and security in the basin. Reducing the risks of regional instability and conflicts caused by climate change require urgent and concerted national, regional, and international endeavors to decrease the risk of failed states and to reduce regional threats to international maritime transport and commerce. Failed states become a breeding ground for radical extremists and terrorists and a continuous threat to regional stability. The crisis in Darfur, Sudan, and the proliferation of piracy along the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and the northwestern Indian Ocean provides an early warning system for global indifference to climate change-driven emerging regional problems. (Reference: Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html).