THE CURRENT STATE OF VOLCANIC RISK AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT AT VOLCAN DE FUEGO, GUATEMALA: FORMAL RISK VERSUS PERCEIVED RISK ASSESSMENTS

The current activity at Volcan de Fuego and the explosive eruptions that have happened in the recent geologic past, suggest that a potentially destructive eruption could affect an area that is settled with many villages and contains between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants. The potential for a disaster given the occurrence of such an eruption has been recognized by authorities and the local population; this has led to various efforts to manage the risk, mainly by organizing an early warning system that could reduce people's exposure to the hazard via and evacuation during a crisis. However, there is not an agreement between the different stakeholders on how such a crisis can be managed. The chances of success for an early warning in these circumstances is strongly dependent on an agreed way to manage the crisis, and therefore the differences in perception of the risk, and the differences in the understanding of the occurrence and development of such a crisis may compromise this success. We explore the risk perception and understanding of crisis scenarios by different stakeholders, through a series of interviews with civil protection officials, local authorities and local population. This is compared with a formal risk analysis carried out through and event tree analysis.