CALM DOWN AND SAVE BILLIONS: USING WHAT WE'RE LEARNING ABOUT NEW MADRID

The bicentennial of the 1811-12 earthquakes is an opportunity to calmly and publicly discuss what's known and what's unknown about the earthquake zone, its possible hazards, and the costs and benefits of different mitigation policies. Although current government policy assumes a hazard comparable to California's, recent results paint a very different picture. GPS data show no evidence for upcoming major earthquakes, and much of the recent seismicity appears to be aftershocks of the large past earthquakes rather than indicating future ones on the way. Thus the hazard appears to be much less than traditionally portrayed, and communities in the area will derive more benefit by applying the resources required for expensive California-level mitigation policies to other societal needs.