ASSESSING FUTURE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATERSHED: WATER, BIOFUEL AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Future energy and water demands are closely interdependent and form a complex system. To ensure energy security, significant efforts have been made to explore renewable energy sources and broaden the energy portfolio. However, the uncertainty and regional impacts associated with a new mix of energy resources for various regions under climate forcings are not well understood and fully explored in a systematic manner. We examine the water resource region of Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), which plays a central role of biofuel production in United States, by using a soil and water assessment tool. The study is to evaluate potential impacts on water flows, nutrient cycles, and environmental integrity under projected biofuel growth, change in land use, and global climate change. The key elements of the water flow components (such as surface runoff, soil water storage, groundwater recharge, etc.) and soil properties that alter balance of water flows are investigated to identify their responses to potential biofuel production and climate change. The resultant changes in nutrient loading in river water are predicted accordingly. Some of dynamic interrelationships among water, biofuel production, and climate change are quantified and demonstrated to address future sustainability.