SUCCESSION MODELING OF EVERGLADES VEGETATION COMMUNITIES FOR RESTORATION PLANNING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession Model (ELVeS) is a spatially-explicit probability model for predicting shifts in vegetation communities in the ecosystem. Probabilities of vegetation community presence given a set of environmental conditions are computed from the niche space of each community. Transitions between community states are defined with conditional probabilities weighted by spatial neighborhood community abundance and temporal lag periods specific to each respective plant community. Model rules defining niche spaces for vegetation communities are derived primarily from the literature and expert opinions of plant community responses to ecological drivers. Vegetation dynamics are influenced by current and past climate and water management actions that have altered flow dynamics, changed the timing and quantity of water resulting in varying hydropatterns. The model is designed to address ecological dynamics in vegetation communities positioned along a stress and competition gradients. Species and community spatial dynamics are represented by a balance between freshwater hydropatterns, nutrients, soil salinity and sea level as well as large-scale influences of climate change, fire and hurricanes. A critical component of the ELVeS model design is a framework to promote incorporation of new knowledge as it is acquired. From the user’s perspective, that means a familiar Excel spreadsheet parameterization file in which new communities, new parameters, or new values for parameters can be added without modification of source code. From a programmer’s perspective the ELVeS’s modular construction facilitates model expansion, improvement and flexibility to promote open source computing. As system knowledge improves over time, new relationships can be integrated into new model components or replace previous framework. Preliminary simulation results demonstrate the application of vegetation succession modeling for evaluating Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan scenarios.