MODELS AS TOOLS FOR LINKING SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT

The mission of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is working with others to conserve, protect, and enhance fish, wildlife, plants, and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people. Meeting this mission requires work grounded in thorough, objective science. In light of the 21^st century conservation challenges it will be even more important for FWS staff to have access to tools that will help to identify science-based conservation strategies for fish and wildlife habitat and population management. Development and application of models is one way that science can provide information for landscape planning, ecosystem restoration, and adaptive management. Forecasting models at appropriate spatial and temporal scales are needed to help understand changes that could occur. For example, use of projections of sea level rise, changes in temperature, precipitation, water availability, and land use provide information about stressors on natural communities and fish and wildlife and plant populations. Outputs from those models can serve as inputs to models that link fish, wildlife, and plant populations to habitat and other limiting factors. These models can provide a foundation for making decisions on where, how much, and what kind of habitat is necessary to ensure landscapes that can support sustainable populations. Having such information will put FWS in a better position to respond proactively. In this presentation I will discuss the kinds of modeling that may be useful for FWS decision makers using examples from the Southeast Region.