PAST AND FUTURE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL HABITATS AND SPECIES IN THE GREATER EVERGLADES

This integrated science project merges biologic and hydrologic modeling to develop tools for resource managers to anticipate the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida. The project builds on prior U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) models and research in support of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and includes the following 5 components:

• Greater Everglades hydrodynamic models (The Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System-FTLOADDS) to simulate salinity, inundation, and water temperature across spatial and temporal scales
• Mangrove-Hammock Model to predict vegetation regime change due to salt-water intrusion from storm surges (or tsunamis)
• Historic habitat charts and aerial photos to identify hot spots of past shoreline and vegetation change in relation to historic sea level rise conditions
• Historic hurricane data to test the influence of extreme hydrologic events on long-term ecological disturbances
• Spatially explicit species and habitat suitability models to document ecologic response tohydrologic change

New Model – Hindcast capability

We are developing a hindcast model to examine historical hydrological conditions supporting documented past vegetation conditions. The initial simulation is from1926-1932 to coincide with available aerial photography. Data include historic rainfall and surface-water feature data and historic Key West sea-level measurements that are used to represent the lower tidal levels at that time. The 1926 Miami hurricane is represented using information collected from the hurricane scenario research. This simulation represents the known coastal landscape prior to the construction of many canals and other drainage features.

New Model – Predictive capability

We will develop forecasting capability for our model based on experience and information from the hindcast model. The new model will incorporate different scenarios of projected SLR and regional climate parameters downscaled from global models. To provide decision-support information to resource managers we also will incorporate various restoration scenarios from CERP, a set of possible extreme weather events that can be targeted to areas of a manager’s choice, and estimated rates of erosion and accretion to shoreline elevation from measured rates under past scenarios of geomorphology, vegetation regime, and hurricane events. Output from the predictive model will be used as input into a Florida manatee and seagrass model to demonstrate the application to spatially-explicit species models and habitat suitability models previously designed for CERP.