AN INTEGRATED, MULTISCALE APPROACH TO PREDICTING THE RESPONSE OF LOTIC BIOTA TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST RESOURCE ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Climate change, land development, and water use are among the foremost problems faced by aquatic resource managers. Identifying and quantifying their effects on aquatic communities is crucial for evaluating potential stream conservation strategies. In the Flint River basin- Georgia, increasing demand for water from the steady growth of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area and increased agricultural irrigation in the Coastal Plain has the potential to alter streamflows throughout the basin. Climate change is expected to have a broad-scale influence on the quantity and the seasonality of streamflows, exacerbating the effects of water use and land development. We developed a multiscale approach to predict the effects of flow and temperature alteration on the persistence of fish communities in the Flint River basin. The modelling approach integrates climate, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, and landscape characterizations within the basin. Existing data sets have been used to allow regionalization of results to other watersheds while minimizing additional data collection. Climate, hydraulic, and ecological models were linked to predict persistence of fish species under future scenarios of flow alteration, land-use effects, and climate change. We intend this as an adaptive framework, within which model components will be iteratively improved with better understanding of mechanisms linking climate, land use, hydrology, and aquatic biota, to provide useful guidance to natural resource managers.