CLIMATE ENVELOPE MODELING FOR EVALUATING ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA

We are developing climate envelope models for the 21 threatened and endangered (T&E) terrestrial vertebrates in South Florida. By virtue of its physical features and geography, Florida, and in particular, South Florida will be highly susceptible to climate changes, specifically with regard to sea level rise. For each of the T&E species under consideration, we are developing bioclimatic models, also called climate envelope models. These models will allow us to relate species’ geographic distributions to climate factors. Predicted future climate variables will be used to predict future species distributions. Bioclimatic models are widely used because they can effectively predict climate-induced range shifts for large numbers of species and provide a first step that can address issues and needs at different spatial and temporal scales. We are working with local partners to ensure that the tools we develop will allow resource managers to examine potential effects of climate change on species’ geographic ranges for ecosystem and landscape-level planning. Our initial focus is to work with partners in the southeast region and expand the list of species of interest in that region; however, our methodology and products will be applicable to other species and regions.