ECOLOGICAL CARBON SEQUESTRATION UNDER PROJECTED LAND COVER AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN MISSISSIPPI PLAINS – MODEL INTERCOMPARISON AND ANALYSIS

Ecological carbon (C) sequestration refers to the transfer and storage of atmospheric C dioxide into vegetation, soil, and aquatic systems that help to offset C and other greenhouse gas emissions. Three biogeochemical models (EDCM, CENTURY, and IBIS) are used to estimate the range and uncertainty of C stock and C fluxes as affected by climate change and land management in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain and Valley Loess Plains from 2001 to 2050. The three models have different model structure and parameterization approaches. By using the same soil, climate, and land cover input datasets, model inter-comparison mainly focus on major model outputs such as the ecosystem net primary productivity, living biomass stock, and soil carbon change. Model sensitivities to global change (e.g., global warming, atmospheric CO2 increase, and land cover change) and model scaling effects are also analyzed. Recommendations for reducing overall model uncertainties are discussed.