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Northeastern Section (45th Annual) and Southeastern Section (59th Annual) Joint Meeting (13-16 March 2010)

Paper No. 2
Presentation Time: 1:55 PM

THE SEA ALSO RISES


PILKEY, Orrin H., Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, P.O. Box 90228, Durham, NC 27708 and YOUNG, Rob, Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Belk 294, Cullowhee, NC 28723, opilkey@duke.edu

A number of state and local science panels have predicted that the global sea level will rise by 1 to 2 m by 2100. The behavior of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets in the last decade would indicate that a 1 m sea level rise should be viewed as minimal. Adding to the problem is the first recognition (in 2009) of a significant contribution of meltwater from the East Antarctic ice sheet. The dire predictions seem to have had little impact on coastal zone management so far, perhaps because they are not recognized as dire and the ramifications are not widely understood. In fact, the ramifications have not been laid out for the public as yet, a public that in significant part is not convinced that global warming is even occurring.

A one meter sea level rise will end barrier island development along America’s 5600 km long barrier island shoreline – the longest in the world. At the new sea level, shoreline erosion will be unstoppable except by construction of seawalls that must completely surround the islands. At the same time that the barrier islands are facing their crisis, the cities will also be in trouble, and it is likely that preservation of Miami, Manhattan and Boston will trump funding for barrier island communities. The time for societal action is now because building practices and infrastructure emplacement today will have an impact on the sea level response of tomorrow. The single most important response would be prohibition of high-rise buildings near the shoreline. On barrier islands this response must be flexible if the islands are to survive. Creative and even unthinkable approaches are needed, including perhaps artificial migration of heavily developed islands and eventual wholesale destruction of buildings along densely populated shorelines like those on the Florida Peninsula. It is important for coastal geologists to get involved in this public debate because no one else understands what a 1 m sea level rise will do on a barrier island shoreline!

Session No. 48

T12. The Impact of Climate Change on Barrier Island-Backbarrier Systems
Monday, 15 March 2010: 1:30 PM-5:35 PM
Liberty A (Sheraton Baltimore City Center)
Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 42, No. 1, p.129
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