THE RUSSIAN HEAT WAVE AND OTHER CLIMATE EXTREMES OF 2010

The atmospheric and ocean environment has changed from human activities in ways that affect storms and extreme climate events. It is argued that the main way climate change is perceived is through changes in extremes because those are outside the bounds of previous weather. In 2010 a number of large impact climate extremes occurred and one focus is on the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan floods. We show how they are related and how both are driven by natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences. Together these resulted in very high sea surface temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean that provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for monsoon rains. The resulting atmospheric monsoonal circulation had a direct link into southern Russia and supported persistent atmospheric “blocking” anticyclones, setting the stage for the Russian heat wave and wild fires. A brief discussion will be given of other recent extremes including the Queensland flooding and the 2011 Mississippi flooding and tornado outbreaks in the US.