PRINCIPLES AND EXPERIENCES OF DECISION SUPPORT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT

Principles of decision support are discussed with reference to experiences in integrated water management and modeling. Successful decision support requires consideration of context. It needs to be sensitive to end-user needs by being timely and resource effficient. Proper care needs to be accorded to agreeing on the role of the modeling in decision making and establishing the credibility of the model used. These factors have implications for modeling, which must be purpose-driven to appropriately prioritize limited resources for the required tasks.

These and related principles are discussed with reference to several years of case studies, including an ongoing example of groundwater management in South Australia. A process was tailored to fit local problems, governance structures and stakeholder interests. Stakeholders are engaged in multiple ways to establish expectations, resolve perspectives, integrate and share system knowledge; and frame the modeling problem by deciding on system structure, scales, scenarios and indicators. As opposed to generalized unstructured usage, modelling is focussed on predicting the environmental and socioeconomic outcomes (using representative indicators) of management strategies and key uncontrollable variables under related specified scenarios. Local knowledge is used to develop and verify models and establish their credibility. Models are kept as simple as possible to help understanding, reduce development and run-times, and manage uncertainty. Uncertainty is explicitly considered during model development so that is appropriately addressed in model use to ensure conclusions drawn to support decisions are robust and reflect the best scientific knowledge available.