LESSONS AND APPLICATIONS FROM COMPLEXITY THEORY TO THE GEOSCIENCES

Textbooks, journal articles, short courses, and workshops have used the words Earth Systems, Earth Systems Thinking, Complicated Earth Systems, and Complex Earth Systems as if they are interchangeable. They are not. A system with complexity may not be a complex system. Complex systems modeling represents a fundamental philosophical shift from the assumptions derived from the mathematics of classical physics/chemistry (the Earth behaves as a deterministic system evolving to predictable equilibrium states), to ones that evolve complexity while far from equilibrium . Because most of us have not been taught about non-equilibrium systems, the terms system, complex, complexity, and Complex Earth Systems exist as buzzwords and jargon within the geosciences. They are misunderstood and misused, although the principles and mathematics of complex systems are well developed in other disciplines. This confuses and limits our ability to recognize, understand, and interpret complex Earth Systems. Sophisticated modeling will not yield insightful or useful results to complex systems if they are classically modeled.

Based on Turcotte (1997 and 2006) and Fichter et al. (2010), we propose that to understand Complex Earth Systems, one’s thinking must minimally be prepared and trained to reflexively presume and search for the following properties. The more energy/information a system dissipates: 1) the more complex it becomes–entropy goes down (i.e. order increases); 2) the more sensitive dependent it becomes, capable of dramatic evolutionary change from minuscule changes in input; 3) the faster the changes come; 4) the larger the changes become, following a power law. Furthermore, 5) despite being deterministic these systems are inherently unpredictable; the behavior often appears random; 6) yet, these systems produce readily recognizable and repeatable patterns (e.g. ripples) following simple algorithms.

In the geosciences, models and examples that systematically document the role and expression of these outcomes are still poorly developed. We have developed and assessed 2 classes at JMU that teach Complex Earth Systems as non-equilibrium complex systems. This poster presents the principles necessary to recognize the Earth as a complex system, and illustrates examples where they can be readily recognized.