A SOLAR TRANSITION: THE TIMING OF A FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM

We model the conversion of our present global energy infrastructure to a fully renewable alternative, inputting properties of state-of-the-art renewable technology, notably its EROI (energy return on energy invested) and lifetime. Energy investments come from the depletable (i.e., non-renewable) energy sources dominated by fossil fuels as well as the growing renewable infrastructure. We find that we can replace the entire existing energy infrastructure with renewables in 25 years or less, so long as EROI of the mixed renewable power infrastructure is maintained at 20 or higher, by using merely 1% of annual depletable energy budgets and a reinvestment of 10% of the renewable capacity per year. Even faster replacement times result from higher dedicated commitments of depletable energy and energy invested from the growing renewable capacity. Furthermore, by 2050, the global power capacity can grow relative to the present level so as to provide energy consumption per capita levels for the global South consistent with high human development requirements, while radically reducing carbon emissions.