EMPLOYING LONG-SEQUENCE REMOTE SENSING AND EARTH TREND MODELING TO ASSESS GLACIAL RESPONSE ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA'S MOUNT SHASTA

Mountain glaciers are important environmental indicators and can be a useful means of monitoring patterns of environmental change. However, glacial response to environmental change can vary from glacier to glacier and no single system is able to represent all glaciers in terms of a uniform response. Therefore the state of each glacier needs to be individually monitored and assessed. Using Mt. Shasta in northern California as the study area, image-based time-series analysis coupled with a Markov-based trend modeling procedure was applied to a series of Landsat TM image acquired annually from 1985 to 2010. Using this sequence to define environmental trajectories active in the region ,the long-term pattern of potential environmental change was projected forward in varying increments to the year 2110. Analysis revealed a systematic response influenced by El Nino cycles, evidenced by regional land cover and glacial advance and retreat patterns. When these change trajectories were projected into the future notable variability in land cover patterns were observed with a general trend toward increased vegetative growth and heightened glacial oscillations.