MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON MAUMEE RIVER DISCHARGE

Sediment and Phosphorous runoff from the Maumee River watershed, with the largest drainage of any of the great lakes watersheds, have been identified as significant contributors to water quality problems in the western basin of Lake Erie. Sediment and nutrient loading have been associated with increased harmful algal blooms and these blooms and sediment impact the most productive fishery in the Great Lakes. We use a calibrated SWAT model and climate model predictions to model the anticipated changes of discharge, sediment and phosphate from the Maumee River, both in terms of total volume and in temporal distribution of discharge. The model was calibrated to flow volume, sediment concentration and P concentrations. In addition to NLCD land use data, SRTM topography, STATSGO soil classifications and local meteorological data used to generate and calibrate the initial model. Precipitation and temperature for the model were then supplied using LLNL-Reclamation-SCU downscaled climate projections data derived from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset, stored and served at the LLNL Green Data Oasis. Simulation results for 1974-2009 were validated against the USGS gauging station at Waterville, OH. Model runs for a suite of climate predictions were produced. These document changes in discharge predicted under the range of climate models.