NORTH CAROLINA SEA LEVEL RISE ASSESSMENT: EVALUATING FLOOD RISK FOR COMMUNITY LIFELINES NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina’s coastal region is at risk due to effects from global climate change. Observed sea level rise trends are expected to continue as Earth’s climate experiences warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The impact to the state’s northern and southern coastal zones will be different due to different sea level rates observed across the region. This difference is related to the underlying geologies of the zones and glacial isostatic adjustment, as subsidence in the region is still occurring from the last glacial maximum. Current sea level rise and future estimates are evaluated to assess risk of North Carolina’s coastal communities. Community lifelines (i.e. roads, bridges, hospitals, fire stations etc.) and the use of existing and predicted SLOSH models were used to measure risk over both coastal zones. Risk, calculated by the amount of lifelines inundated by future storm surge, provides information for regional administrators to more efficiently use state resources through allocation and prioritization of climate change planning, mitigation, and adaption efforts. GIS was used to remotely measure and compare the risk between the northern and southern coastal zones. Overall, the northern zone is more vulnerable to inundation; however, North Carolina’s entire coastal region, especially its barrier-island-complexes, needs to be further evaluated for future development.