CHANGE DISTRIBUTION OF FOUR CACTACEAE SPECIES IN THREE CLIMATIC SCENARIOS IN CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

The planet earth is warming up where human activity has altered the climate and the equilibrium of natural cycles. Recently, new methodologies have been used to model the distribution of different species. For example, with Maxent (Maxent Model for Macroscenario Analysis) is feasible to estimate the potential distribution of cactaceae species. The hypothesis proposed was, if climatic change will negatively affect the cactaceae species in their potencial distribution. Hence, the main objective was to evaluate the impact of the climatic change on the geographic distribution of four species of cactaceae in the Chihuahua State. The study focused on four cactaceae species Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii. Geographic distribution of each species was estimated by the spatial ecological niche Maxent model under three simulated climate scenarios of the IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B), four periods of time (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. The results showed that Maxent projected a decrease in the potential area of the four species for 2020 under A2 scenario. This decrease was not significant for the next years because of the species suffer an increment in their area. All species, with the exception of the Echinocereus dasyacanthus, will have in 2080 a greater area than is currently presented. In the case of A1B scenario is shown more drastic results were is evidenced the negative effect that the climatic change can have in these species. In the particular case of Coryphantha macromeris there was a decrease of 27% from 2020 to 2050; but the area increased in the 2080 even greater to the one presented in the 2020. Echinocereus dasyacanthus will have an increase in its area from 2020 to 2050; but, finally in the 2080 will have a decrease of the 73% to what tended in 2020. Mammillaria lasiacantha will decrease 13% from 2020 to 2080 while Ferocactus wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. It was determined that some species will maintain stable their distribution in relation to the climatic changes. However, others can be affected in their distribution if the tendency would mark a preference under the A1B scenario. It is recommended to continue with some studies to detect possible consequences that would have the climatic change in flora and fauna.