ASSESSING THE PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURING ON THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE THROUGH OBSERVATION AND SIMULATION

Methane (the primary component of natural gas) is a potent greenhouse gas over 20 times more effective at radiating heat than CO2, and its Global Warming Potential (GWP) is 72 times greater in a short-term, 20-year period. According to NOAA, “Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States .... [On] average, excessive heat claims more lives each year than floods, lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes combined.” In addition, methane emissions are known to be directly correlated to concentrations of tropospheric O3, which is a primary constituent of smog. The human health impacts from prolonged exposure to smog are also well-documented. Shale drilling sites using hydraulic fracturing have become a significant source of methane over the last decade. The shale gas industry is projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to increase its production of 5.0 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 13.6 trillion cubic feet by 2035, thus growing from 23% of the US’s total natural gas production to 49% over the same interval. Despite this vast increase in drilling, the amount of methane being released during and after the drilling process at any given site is poorly understood. We aim to use the dual approach of observation and simulation to assess the impact of this considerable source of methane. In-situ observations provide us with previously-unavailable emissions data. Chemical- and radiative-transport models shed insight into the full effects of these emissions, made more powerful by including the in-situ data.