A SCIENCE-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ALONG NASA KENNEDY SPACE CENTER SHORELINE, CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA

A presidential initiative has been proposed to improve, expand, and modernize the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) infrastructure. Even with the modernization efforts, launch operational imperatives will keep much of that infrastructure within 500 m of the Atlantic coastline. Shoreline retreat near existing critical infrastructure threatens these facilities as well as critical endangered-species habitat along several kilometers of the Cape Canaveral shoreline. The causative factors for the spatial patterns of accretion and erosion observed at KSC have not been identified, but are likely due to sea level rise and interaction of the offshore wave energy with the unique shoal bathymetry and the antecedent geologic framework.

To better understand the coastal geomorphology and patterns of shoreline accretion and retreat along the Cape Canaveral coast, a Coastal and Dune Vulnerability Team (CDVT) was initiated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and included the University of Florida (UF), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Innovative Health Applications (IHA), United States Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), private engineering firms, and The United States Air Force (USAF). Since May 2009, the University of Florida along with the research team has assembled data on decadal to event-scale shoreline change (dGPS), beach and nearshore morphodynamics (dGPS and Argus), beach sedimentary character (grain size analysis), wave climate and transformation (ADCP), and inner shelf bathymetry (Echo Sounding) in an effort to assess dune vulnerability and flooding risk. In addition, SWAN numerical modeling simulations offer insight into the influence of irregular bathymetry (cape-associated shoals) on the alteration of spatial patterns of wave energy flux during a decadal shift in deep-water wave climate. By combining contemporaneous data of coastal geomorphic and sedimentary response to wave forcing with numerical model results that explore a range of climate scenarios, we aim to develop a useful understanding of the coastal geomorphic behavior at KSC that can be used to make a mitigation recommendation.